Tim Toyne Toy Company – Part I

Tim Toyne, president of the Tim Toyne Toy Company (a British firm) is currently trying to decide whether he should bring to market his new model toy truck called the T4 (Tim Toyne’s Toy Truck). Tim is uncertain about both the potential market for this new toy, and the unit cost of producing it. The estimated net profit to be earned by this new toy depends on these two uncertain factors in the following manner (profit is expressed in millions of pounds):

Unit Production Costs (pounds per unit)

1.0 1.5 2.0

Market Large 10.0 6.0 2.0
Size
Small 2.0 -2.0 -4.0

Tim must decide within the next week whether or not he should go into production with the T4. If he decides against the introduction of the T4, he will invest his assets in a diversified mutual fund where the returns are also an uncertainty. Tim has asked you, his chief technical business analyst, to help him analyze this situation. You and your team view the market size and production cost as independent random variables and have assessed the following distributions for them:

Market Production
Size Probability Cost Probability

Large 0.6 1.0 0.2

Small 0.4 1.5 0.3

2.0 0.5

The returns from the mutual fund investment over the same period of time (in millions of pounds) has been assessed using Stuart Varney, a business and financial expert, with the following results:

P(< 4) = 0.99 P(< 1) =0 .75 P(< 0) = 0.50 P(< -1) = 0.25 P(< -2) = 0.01 To assist Tim in his decision, you ask him about his attitude toward risk and he replies, “If you take a big risk you will have a big loss but if you take a small risk you will have only a small loss. Therefore I am neutral toward risk!” He then asks you to have answers for the eight questions listed 1. Structure the influence diagram and decision tree and determine Tim’s optimal strategy, i.e. given the current state of information, what should Tim do 2. Risk Profiles (a) Create a risk profile and cumulative risk profile for Tim’s decision problem. (b) Is there any form of dominance exhibited (deterministic or stochastic) Explain 3. Perform a sensitivity analysis for the market size uncertainty. 4. If before making the decision Tim could obtain perfect information about market size and production cost, what is the most he should be willing to pay for such information 5. What is the most Tim should be willing to pay for perfect information about the market size alone 6. Suppose that Tim’s Director of Manufacturing, Max Factor, is very knowledgeable about manufacturing costs but is not very knowledgeable in probability assessment methods. Thus, you are to assist Max in developing the distribution for the production costs. List the questions you would ask and the corresponding answers that Max could provide. Graph your results and show/explain how this information is used in the decision tree. Note that you have the results in the basic problem; just show how these results were achieved through a probability assessment procedure. 7. After presenting the results of your analysis to Tim, his only comment was “I know I would like to have perfect information about the market, but I also know that is an impossibility. Why don’t you talk to Mike Morris, our Marketing Manager, to see what information he might have You meet with Mike and he says that in the next week he can conduct a QSMS (Quick and Sloppy Market Survey) at only a modest expense. A QSMS is quite crude and results simply in either a positive (looks promising) or negative (doesn’t look promising) result concerning the introduction of a new product such as the T4. Based upon past experience, Mike assesses a probability of 0.70 that the survey result will be positive if the actual potential market is large, and a probability of 0.20 that it will be positive if the market is small. What is the most Tim should pay for the QSMS Tim Toyne Toy Company – Part II After discussing the value of the QSMS with Tim, he accepts your overall approach but has doubts about your recommendations. You replied “But Tim, you said you were risk neutral” to which Tim says “Well, Mr. Chief Analyst, I think you better find out in a hurry.” Being a rather quick thinking sport yourself, you recall your wonderful experiences in class and quickly propose to Tim a series of questions about his attitude towards risk. The dialog goes as follows: You: I know you like to gamble on occasion so I am going to propose some gambling situations to you for your appraisal. Tim: Go right ahead, Mr. Chief Analyst. You: The first gamble is that I toss this fair coin and if it comes up heads you win 10 million pounds, but if it comes up tails you lose 4 million pounds. Tim: Sounds interesting. Should I call heads or tails You: It is interesting, but don’t call anything yet. I would like for you to have another alternative. Tim: Another alternative Why I don’t need another alternative, one is enough!! You: How much would you be just willing to take as a guaranteed amount so you don’t have to take the gamble Tim: 10 million pounds!!! You: Would you take 5 million pounds Tim: Yes, but I prefer 10 million. You: Would you give away your chance at the gamble for nothing Tim: Absolutely not!!! You: What if someone offered you 2 million pounds Would you take it Tim: Now that’s a tough choice. I’m not sure which one I’d take. You: Good, now lets try another. Tim: Another We haven’t finished the first one yet. You: Let’s put it aside for the time being and try the following gamble. Consider the same gamble again except this time if tails comes up you will win 2 million pounds. As before, you win 10 million pounds if its heads. Now how much would it take as a guaranteed amount such that you would be indifferent between the coin toss and the guaranteed amount Tim: I think I’m now getting the idea. I would say 4 million pounds would be about right. You: Now consider the following payoff from the toss of our fair coin. Heads you win 4 million pounds, tails you lose 4 million pounds. What minimum amount would you take for certain to give up the gamble Tim: Now this is the type of gamble that I really like. It would take an offer of at least one million pounds for me to give up the gamble. You: What if the payoffs were 2 million for heads and a loss of 4 million for tails Tim: As you Americans would say, “Not one damn cent.” You: Now let me ask the question a little differently. If I could guarantee you a loss of only one million pounds in lieu of a gamble where you could lose 4 million pounds or win nothing, what would the probability of winning the “ nothing “ have to be to make you indifferent between the gamble and the guaranteed loss Tim: Now that’s a tough question. I sure don’t like the gamble, especially not being able to win anything, but I also don’t like guaranteed losses. You: Would you like to think about it for a few minutes Tim: Yes ….. (two minute pause) ….. Now that I have thoroughly thought about it, I would say that the chances of winning should be close to 40% for me to be indifferent. Why all these hard questions anyway You: Thank you Tim, I’ll have your answers first thing in the morning. 8. Based on your questions and Tim’s answers, (a) what can you say about his attitude towards risk (b) resolve questions 1 and 4 using your new information on risk attitude.

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Diploma in Education and Training (DET)

Your aim is to become a staff member who is on great demand by students and also has work to accomplish quality assurance framework while delivering sessions, and assessing students.

You are supposed to consider your own working context or choose a working environment which you are familiar with. In any case you must produce references of the work place chosen and also review related documents.

Note: You are required to review recent articles, books and other relevant literature. Wikipedia is strictly not allowed for references to answer any part of the task given. You must reflect practical understanding of each question and are required to provide candid academic references of any evidence you have in relation to the answer.

Task 1:Presentation with Notes

You are required to perform a professional presentation with detailed referenced notes.Thepresentation should be addressed to your current college management answering all the questions in provided below;

Define the concept of professionalism and dual professionalism in education and training
Explain ways in which own professional values influence own practice in an area of specialism

Task 2:Report

Explain ways in which social, political and economic factors influence education policy
Analyse the impact of current educational policies on curriculum and practice in own area of specialism

Task 3: Report
Analyse the impact of being accountable to stakeholders and external bodies on curriculum design, delivery and assessment in own area of specialism

Task 4: Report

Explain key aspects of policies, codes of practice and guidelines of an organisation
Analyse the impact of organizational requirements and expectations on curriculum practice in own area of specialism

Task 5: Report

Analyse the quality improvement and quality assurance arrangements of own organisation
Explain the function of self-assessment and self-evaluation and the quality cycle
Evaluate a learning programme taking account of the quality maintenance of own organization
5.4 Identify areas for improvement in the learning programme taking account of the outcomes of evaluation

Your lecturer will advise you about the assignment structure, and the date when you must hand in your completed work.
You should make sure that you plan your work carefully, to ensure that you cover all the requirements of the assignment, and complete it within the time limit specified.
Learning Outcome
Learning outcome

Assessment Criteria In this assessment you will have the opportunity to present evidence that shows you are able to:

Task No
Evidence

(Page no)

LO1 Understand professionalism and the influence professional values in education and training 1.1 Define the concept of professionalism and dual professionalism in education and training 1
1.2 Explain ways in which own professional values influence own practice in an area of specialism 1
LO2 Understand the policy context of education and training 2.1 Explain ways in which social, political and economic factors influence education policy 2

2.2 Analyse the impact of current educational policies on curriculum and practice in own area of specialism 2
LO3 Understand the impact of accountability to stakeholders and external bodies in education and training 3.1

3.4 Analyse the impact of being accountable to stakeholders and external bodies on curriculum design, delivery and assessment in own area of specialism. 3
LO4 Understand the organisational context of education and training 4.1 Explain key aspects of policies, codes of practice and guidelines of an organization 4
4.2 Analyse the impact of organisational requirements and expectations on curriculum practice in own area of specialism 4

LO5 Be able to contribute to the quality improvement and quality assurance arrangements of own organisation 5.1 Analyse the quality improvement and quality assurance arrangements of own organization 5
5.2 Explain the function of self-assessment and selfevaluation and the quality cycle 5
5.3 Evaluate a learning programme taking account of the quality maintenance of own organization 5
5.4 Identify areas for improvement in the learning programme taking account of the outcomes of evaluation 5
Learner declaration
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