1A. Does the production history agree with our simple calculations (position the cursor on the graph and it will show you the values at different times)?

At what time does the production reach its maximum (peak) value? Make sure you have set the tech rate to 0.0004.

What is the magnitude of the peak in production? Make sure the tech rate is set to 0.0004.

3A Part 1. First, run the model as it is, with the Price Slope = 0.05 and the Tech Slope = 0.0002. Note the time and magnitude of the peak in production. Then alter the tech slope or price slope as prescribed: Tech Slope = 0.0002; Price Slope = .07. Run the model and compare the peak time and magnitude with the original case (use page 2 of the graph pad). Use “sooner” or “later” to describe how your alterations changed the timing of the peak in production.

3A Part 2 (Note: Question is repeated for your convenience.) This question focuses on the magnitude of peak. First, run the model as it is, with the Price Slope = 0.05 and the Tech Slope = 0.0002. Note the time and magnitude of the peak in production. Then alter the tech slope or price slope as prescribed: Tech Slope = 0.0002; Price Slope = .07. Run the model and compare the peak time and magnitude with the original case (use page 2 of the graph pad). Use “greater” or “smaller” to describe how your alterations changed the magnitude of the peak in production.

3B. Use the sliders above the graph to try out a range of different values for the price slope and the tech slope. Run the model with these different settings and see if you can make the peak in oil production go away.

4A. Can you guess what will happen? Remember that r here is just like rin the earlier models, and you’ve seen what happens to the production history when r increases over time.

4B. How will changing the initial size of the Proven Reserves reservoir affect the history of production? Set the initial Proven Reserves to the value supplied (2.0 for the practice version, 3.5 for the graded) and then run the model and see what happens, comparing the production curve with the “control” case from question 4A. Page 2 of the graph pad will be useful in making this comparison.

4C. If the production peaks and then declines, and the population grows or stays the same, then the oil per capita has to decline, because it is the production divided by the population. With your modified model, find the oil per capita in the year 2100 and then find the time earlier in the model history when the oil per capita was about the same as your 2100 value.

5A. How will these new sources of oil/gas change the production history? The total amount of produced oil obviously must be greater than in our model from experiment 4, but how about the shape of that production curve? Remember than in 4, we did not include unproven and unknown reserves. Will there be a peak, as before? If so, what will that peak look like?

5D. What is the peak in production with both switches on compared to control (with no switches on)?

5E. Can a peak in oil production be avoided? In other words, is it possible to find some combination of model parameters that results in more of a plateau in oil production? To figure this out, try changing the exploration slope (this will control that rate that the discovery flows increase), and the exploration start time. We’ll leave the unproven and unknown reserves at 3.0 because this is already a very optimistic outlook.

6. How does improving the technology of oil production (increasing the tech slope) affect the history of oil production?

7. In the model, when the price slope is greater, the feedback is stronger and the production of oil is more strongly dependent upon the price.  How does making this feedback stronger affect the history of oil production?

Correct!